An exit poll carried out by polling company Ipsos, and paid for by the BBC, ITV and Sky says Starmer’s Labour Party will win the general election with 410 seats. The final outcome of the election should be clear by early on Friday.

Labour set to win a general election landslide with majority of 170, according to exit poll for the BBC, ITV and Sky

If the forecast is accurate, it means Keir Starmer will become UK prime minister with 410 Labour MPs – 326 seats are needed for a majority#BBCElection live ⬇️

— BBC Breaking News (@BBCBreaking) July 4, 2024

Labour is set to win a general election landslide with a majority of 170, according to an exit poll for the BBC, ITV and Sky.

To everyone who has campaigned for Labour in this election, to everyone who voted for us and put their trust in our changed Labour Party – thank you. https://t.co/q6yDNPnAbo

— Keir Starmer (@Keir_Starmer) July 4, 2024

If the forecast is accurate, Sir Keir Starmer will become prime minister with 410 Labour MPs – just short of Tony Blair’s 1997 total.

The Conservatives are predicted to slump to 131 MPs, their lowest number ever.

The Liberal Democrats are projected to come third with 61 MPs.

The Scottish National Party will see its number of MPs fall to 10, while Reform UK is forecast to get 13 MPs, according to the exit poll.

The Green Party of England and Wales is predicted to double its number of MPs to two and Plaid Cymru is set to get four MPs. Others are forecast to get 19 seats.

The exit poll, overseen by Sir John Curtice and a team of statisticians, is based on data from voters at about 130 polling stations in England, Scotland and Wales. The poll does not cover Northern Ireland.

At the past five general elections, the exit poll has been accurate to within a range of 1.5 and 7.5 seats.

If the exit poll is correct it will be a remarkable turnaround for the Labour Party, which had its worst post-war election result in 2019.

The Conservatives may avoid the wipe-out predicted by some opinion polls but their predicted result will be a devastating blow for the party after 14 years in government.

The Tory losses are likely to have been inflicted by the resurgent Liberal Democrats and Nigel Farage’s Reform UK, which looks set to win more seats than many polls predicted.

We will have to wait until the early hours, when the bulk of results start rolling in, to see if the exit poll is accurate.

Scotland’s former first minister Nicola Sturgeon said it was “not a good night” for the SNP, which is predicted to lose 38 seats, adding that she believed the prediction would be “broadly right”.

Labour’s predicted landslide would be just short of the 179 majority won by Tony Blair in 1997 and the party may achieve it on a smaller share of the vote than former leader Jeremy Corbyn won in 2017, according to Sir John Curtice.

But it will be seen as a vindication of Sir Keir Starmer’s efforts to change his party and move it back to the centre ground of British politics.

Labour’s deputy leader Angela Rayner told the BBC Sir Keir had done a “tremendous job” of transforming the the party but added “the exit poll is a poll so we haven’t had any results yet”.

Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey said: “It looks like this will be our best result for a generation.”

The Conservatives are on course for their worst election since 1906, when they got 156 seats.

Rishi Sunak had insisted he could still win right to the end despite failing to make a dent in Labour’s commanding opinion poll lead over the six-week campaign.

Conservative Work and Pensions Secretary Mel Stride told BBC Radio 4: “This is a very difficult moment for the Conservative Party.”

He says he is “very sorry” that the exit poll is projecting that a number of his colleagues will lose their seats. On keeping his own seat, he says “we will have to wait and see”.

On Wednesday – the day before the election – Mr Stride made headlines when he admitted he thought it was likely there would be a massive Labour majority, effectively conceding defeat.

Not an ‘existential catastrophe’ for the Conservatives

Tim Bale, a politics professor at Queen Mary University, says that while Labour’s predicted win was “very impressive,” the ruling Conservative party also did better than earlier opinion polls suggested.

“The Conservatives haven’t done quite as badly, it has to be said, as some of the polls during the campaign suggested. Some even suggested that it would go under 100 seats, it looks as if they’re going to pick up about 131…[but] it is a disaster for the Conservative Party but not an existential catastrophe,” Bale told Al Jazeera.

“I think they will be able to build back from this, how it will take for them to do this, however, is the big question”.

Bale added that the party has been in “chaos” since the Brexit referendum in 2016.

“None of the benefits the Conservatives so promised that would come about through Brexit have really materialised. So, I really couldn’t catch a nation if you like of circumstances which has led to this very, very bad result,” he said.

World Opinions + Agencies

L’article UK general election 2024: Exit poll points to Labour victory est apparu en premier sur زوايا ميادين | Mayadin Columns.

Tensions are rising in France, home to one of Europe’s largest Muslim minorities, ahead of the snap election run-off.

Fatimata, a 22-year-old French Muslim woman, suddenly feels as though many of her compatriots are against her very being.

On Sunday, the far right led the first round of parliamentary elections and while it’s not yet clear if Marine Le Pen’s National Rally movement will form a majority after the July 7 run-off, many of France’s six million Muslims are, like Fatimata, paralysed with fear.

“I am feeling betrayed by France. Knowing that 10.6 million people voted for a party promoting the ban of the veil in the public space is hurtful,” she told Al Jazeera.

She represents the kind of French citizen that Le Pen’s party has long demonised.

She wears the hijab, she was born to foreign parents – Mauritanian and Senegalese, and she was raised in one of the banlieues, the impoverished suburbs circling Paris that are home to many immigrant and ethnic minority communities. She’s also a dual citizen.

Le Pen has called for the hijab to be banned in public spaces while Jordan Bardella, her protege who could become France’s next prime minister, has called the veil a “tool of discrimination”. He has railed against the populous banlieue north of Paris that he grew up in – Seine-Saint-Denis – and promised to ban dual nationals from some “the most strategic” state jobs if his party seizes power.

“I’ve experienced to the core the feeling of becoming a foreigner in one’s own country. I’ve experienced the Islamisation of my neighbourhood,” 28-year-old Bardella said in June.

Fatimata, a student, hails from Stains, a commune within Seine-Saint-Denis. It is possible that as a child, she may have walked past Bardella at a market or sat across from him in a cafe.

“I received French nationality when I was 13, and I can’t help to think that somewhere in my banlieue, there is a 13-year-old girl just like I was who won’t be able to achieve things because the first party in France is now the National Rally,” she said.

‘Compromising my future’

President Emmanuel Macron called the snap polls after suffering a humiliating defeat at the hands of the far right in the recent European Parliament elections. But his risky gamble has backfired.

While National Rally secured about a third of Sunday’s vote with 33.15 percent, the New Popular Front, a left-wing alliance, came second with 28.14 percent. Macron was left red-faced again, as his centrist alliance scored just 20.76 percent. Thousands of protesters have taken to the streets since to rally against the far right.

Elias, a 27-year-old who works in marketing, said many Muslims are considering emigrating from France if the National Rally ends up governing – a trend which has already taken hold among some professionals.

Earlier this year, the authors of a study titled La France, tu l’aimes mais tu la quittes (France, loving it but leaving it), conducted a survey of more than 1,000 people, interviewing 140 at length. They cited a “brain drain” of French Muslims quitting the country for jobs abroad because of the “harmful effects of Islamophobia”.

While a “valid” reaction to discrimination or the rise of the far right, Elias said he feels “torn”.

“If we all leave, who will continue to resist? I think it is important to stay, at least for the future generations,” said Elias, who has Algerian ancestry.

“What’s also making me very worried is the potential increase of police violence. There will probably be a surge of racial profiling and of violence, because the officers will feel protected and supported by the National Rally.

“I am scared for my little brother, who is 15 years old and who had his first police check when he was only 13.”

For Tiziri Messaoudene, an 18-year-old student of Algerian descent, it is Bardella’s position on dual nationals that is most frightening.

During a pre-election speech, Bardella justified his stance by evoking Russia’s war on Ukraine, saying, “Can anyone imagine a Franco-Russian working at the armed forces ministry today?”

“The National Rally is saying that dual-nationality holders will not be allowed to work in ‘strategic positions in the state’. This is compromising my future in this country. I am studying political science and would like to work in public affairs, so if this bill passes, would I have studied for nothing?” Tiziri said.

In Carpentras, Tiziri’s hometown in southern France, the National Rally scored 53.51 percent on Sunday.

National Rally was previously known as the National Front, the party founded in 1972 by Marine Le Pen’s father, Jean-Marie Le Pen. The movement has attempted to soften the hard-right image cultivated by Le Pen senior, who was known for, and convicted of, racist hate speech.

Rim-Sarah Alouane, a French legal expert, said it would be “theoretically impossible” for the National Rally to carry out some of its aims.

“The bill on the ban on the veil in the public space would infringe on the laïcité (secularism) principle, while the bill on the dual-nationality holders would infringe on the principle of equality between the citizens,” Alouane told Al Jazeera.

“Nevertheless, the National Rally is a political party like no other, which means that it could do exceptional things if it comes to power.

“So in theory, those bills are against the Constitution. But in practice, we will have to see if the supreme institutions of the country will play their roles as counterweights.”

She believes that a “long process of normalisation” lies behind the far right’s success.

Under Macron’s government, controversial bills such as the abaya ban, the so-called separatism law and recent measures on immigration have rocked marginalised groups.

“It’s an important thing to remember,” said Tiziri. “Even under Macron, we lived in a nauseating Islamophobic and racist climate, where scapegoats were the Muslims and the people from foreign origin.”

According to Benjamin Tainturier, a doctoral student at Sciences Po Paris who researches far-right discourse in the media, the National Rally’s rise can be linked to the “demonisation of the radical left”, especially of Jean-Luc Melenchon’s France Unbowed party, as well as shifting theories on racism.

“After 15 years, the National Rally has succeeded in changing the definition of what racism is, through replacing a colonial and essentialist racism by a more subtle form,” he told Al Jazeera.

Macron’s Renaissance party also “stigmatised its left-wing opponents, by using the same demonising tactics that were used against the far-right before”, he said.

While campaigning, centrist politicians adopted the slogan “Ni RN, ni LFI” (Neither National Rally, nor France Unbowed).

Looking ahead, Tainturier shares Elias’s concern that police-led discrimination could surge if the far right dominates the parliament.

“If the ruling power conveys the idea that it is acceptable to discriminate against people according to their origins, it could legitimise police violence and thus increase it,” he warned.

Meanwhile, Macron, who faces the prospect of awkwardly cohabiting with a far-right premier, is urging voters to get behind the centre, ominously warning of “civil war” if the hard right – or left – triumphs.

SOURCE: AL JAZEERA

L’article Elections. France’s Muslims fear for their futures as Le Pen’s far right party surges est apparu en premier sur زوايا ميادين | Mayadin Columns.

The leaders of Norway, Ireland and Spain have said their countries will formally recognise Palestine as a state next week for the sake of “peace in the Middle East“, prompting Israel to immediately recall its envoys.

The three European countries will formally enact recognition on May 28 despite Israel’s warnings of the consequences.

Spain and Ireland said the decision was not against Israel nor in favour of Hamas, but rather in support of peace.

Israel reacted angrily, warning the move would mean more instability in the region and recalling its ambassadors to all three countries.

Both Hamas and its rival, the Palestinian Authority, have welcomed the recognition.

Norway was first to make its announcement Wednesday in a move co-ordinated with the other two countries.

Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre said in an address that the move was “in support of moderate forces that are on a retreating front in a protracted and cruel conflict”.

“This is an investment in the only solution that can bring lasting peace in the Middle East,” he added, referring to the so-called two-state solution which would see an Israeli and a Palestinian state existing peacefully next to each other.

Ireland and Spain followed suit soon after.

“Today, we state clearly our unambiguous support for the equal right to security, dignity, and self-determination for the Palestinian and Israeli peoples,” Irish Foreign Minister Micheál Martin said.

The country’s Prime Minister Simon Harris later stressed that “Hamas is not the Palestinian people”.

“Today’s decision to recognise Palestine is taken to help create a peaceful future,” he said.

Mr Harris’s comments were echoed by Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, who said the move was “not against Israel, is not against the Jews”.

“It is not in favour of Hamas which is something that has been said. This recognition is not against anyone, it is in favour of peace and coexistence.”

Israel reacted to the announcements with fury. Foreign Minister Israel Katz said he was ordering the immediate return of the Israeli ambassadors to all three countries for “consultations”.

“Israel will not go over this in silence – there will be other serious consequences,” he said.

Mr Katz also said that the three countries’ ambassadors in Israel will be summoned for “reprimand talks”, during which they will be shown a video of the abduction of female Israeli soldiers on 7 October.

Hamas, which controls Gaza and is currently at war with Israel, said Wednesday’s announcements would be a “turning point in the international position on the Palestinian issue”.

In a statement to AFP, Bassem Naim, a senior Hamas figure, said the “brave resistance” of the Palestinian people was behind the move.

Hamas’s rival, the Palestinian Authority (PA) – which controls parts of the Israeli-occupied West Bank – said Norway, Spain and Ireland had demonstrated their “unwavering commitment” to “delivering the long overdue justice to the Palestinian people”.

Also on Wednesday, the Israeli military approved the return of Israeli citizens to the sites of three settlements in the occupied West Bank, which they had been banned from entering since 2005.

Israel’s parliament had voted to allow its citizens to return in March last year, but military permission was needed for the bill to be enforced.

Most of the international community considers the settlements illegal under international law, though Israel disputes this.

The issue of Palestinian statehood has vexed the international community for decades.

Since the 7 October attacks, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has doubled down on his opposition to such a plan, saying the creation of a Palestinian state would compromise Israel’s security.

Israel’s foreign ministry said in a post on social media on Tuesday that recognising a Palestinian state would lead to more “terrorism, instability in the region and jeopardise any prospects for peace”.

About 1,200 people were killed in the unprecedented attacks on 7 October, when Hamas gunmen burst into Israel. They took 252 others back to Gaza as hostages.

Since then, more than 35,000 people, mostly civilians, have been killed in Israel’s Gaza offensive, according to the Hamas-run health ministry.

Most of the world already recognises the state of Palestine. Earlier this month, 143 of the 193 members of the United Nations General Assembly voted in favour of it joining the UN, something only states can do.

Before Wednesday’s announcements, only nine European countries supported Palestinian statehood and most of those took the decision in 1988 when they were part of the Soviet bloc.

Most other European countries, and the US, still believe recognition should come only as part of a long-term two-state solution to the conflict.

A White House spokesperson said US President Joe Biden was a “strong supporter” of the two-state solution, and believed “a Palestinian state should be realised through direct negotiations, not through unilateral recognition”.

Slovenia and Malta have also said recently that they were considering a formal recognition.

Norway’s prime minister also said on Wednesday that he hoped the recognition of Palestinian statehood by the three countries would bring renewed momentum to the peace talks.

Long-running negotiations in Cairo aimed at securing a truce and further hostage releases are currently stalled.

Meanwhile, the humanitarian situation in Gaza continues to deteriorate. Earlier this week, the UN said food distribution in the southern Gaza city of Rafah had been suspended due to a lack of supplies and insecurity.

The chief prosecutor of the International Criminal Court (ICC) recently applied for arrest warrants for Mr Netanyahu and Hamas’s leader in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, for war crimes. Both Israel and Hamas have condemned the move.

Israel says an offensive in Rafah is needed to eliminate Hamas but the international community has warned against it, saying it will greatly exacerbate the humanitarian crisis in Gaza.

World Opinions – Agencies

L’article Ireland, Norway and Spain to recognise Palestinian state.. Video est apparu en premier sur زوايا ميادين | Mayadin Columns.

Europe and the US need each other and are “stronger together”, the secretary-general of Nato has said.

Jens Stoltenberg was speaking at a ceremony marking the alliance’s 75th anniversary.

While the US provided Europe with security, he said it also needed the militaries, intelligence and diplomatic leverage of its European allies.

“I don’t believe in America alone just as I don’t believe in Europe alone,” Mr Stoltenberg said.

“I believe in America and Europe together in Nato, because we are stronger and safer together.”

The Nato chief’s remarks came as the alliance considered a €100bn (£86bn) five-year fund to provide long-term military support for Ukraine, so aid to Kyiv is not jeopardised by political changes either in the US or other Nato states.

A US package worth $60bn (£47bn) has been stalled in Congress for months because of resistance from Republican lawmakers, as well as Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, who has spoken of ending the war “in one day”.

During his speech, Mr Stoltenberg said Nato must be “doing something right”, as it had grown from 12 countries at its inception to 32. Its newest members Sweden and Finland abandoned their neutrality and joined the alliance as a result of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said in response to the speech that relations between Russia and Nato had “slid to the level of direct confrontation” as the alliance was already “involved” in the conflict around Ukraine.

The Nato chief’s remarks came as the alliance considered a €100bn (£86bn) five-year fund to provide long-term military support for Ukraine, so aid to Kyiv is not jeopardised by political changes either in the US or other Nato states.

A US package worth $60bn (£47bn) has been stalled in Congress for months because of resistance from Republican lawmakers, as well as Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, who has spoken of ending the war “in one day”.

During his speech, Mr Stoltenberg said Nato must be “doing something right”, as it had grown from 12 countries at its inception to 32. Its newest members Sweden and Finland abandoned their neutrality and joined the alliance as a result of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said in response to the speech that relations between Russia and Nato had “slid to the level of direct confrontation” as the alliance was already “involved” in the conflict around Ukraine.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken told reporters support for Ukraine within the alliance is “rock solid” and that he believes Ukraine will eventually become a member of Nato, Reuters reported.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba told reporters at Nato headquarters that while he did not want to “spoil [Nato]’s birthday party”, his country needed help in improving its air defences – specifically Patriot missiles.

“Saving Ukrainian lives, saving the Ukrainian economy and saving Ukrainian cities depends on the availability of Patriots and other air defence systems,” Mr Kuleba said.

Lacking air superiority and faced with formidable Russian defences, Ukraine’s counter-offensive ground to a halt last year and is now at risk of being outgunned on the front line in the east.

The US has given Ukraine more financial aid than any other Nato state- more than $44bn (£34bn) since the 2022 invasion, according to the White House in December. However, its aid has now become caught up in a political row months before the presidential election.

Republican candidate Donald Trump has often criticised the level of spending. He has also long complained that the US has shouldered a greater financial burden than the rest of the alliance.

Fewer than two-thirds of Nato members are on course to reach their 2% funding goal.

Highlighting the importance of Nato’s European allies to the US, Mr Stoltenberg noted it was America’s allies that came to its help after the 9/11 attacks in 2001. That was the only occasion that a key principle of the alliance has been invoked, in which an attack on one ally is seen as an attack on all.

Nato allies closest to Russia have stepped up efforts to boost their armed forces.

Norway is increasing its number of conscripted soldiers, while Denmark says it intends to extend conscription to women and increase the duration of service. Latvia and Sweden recently restarted military service, while Lithuania brought it back after Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014.

Norway is increasing the number of conscripted soldiers, while Denmark says it intends to extend conscription to women and increase the duration of service. Latvia and Sweden recently restarted military service, while Lithuania brought it back after Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014.

By Laura Gozzi – BBC News

L’article Analysis. Europe and US need each other, Nato chief Stoltenberg says est apparu en premier sur زوايا ميادين | Mayadin Columns.

Southern Europe will continue to swelter next week as an intense heatwave shows no sign of abating.

Italy, Spain and Greece have been experiencing high temperatures for several days already.

The Italian health ministry issued a red alert for 16 cities including Rome, Bologna and Florence for the weekend.

The heatwave is expected to continue well into next week, with 48C (118.4F) predicted in Sardinia, according to Italian media.

The European record high of 48.8C (119.8F) was recorded in Sicily in August 2021.

The Italian weather service said the island will be at the “epicentre” of next week’s heatwave, which weather forecasters have dubbed Charon, after the ferryman who delivered souls into the underworld in Greek mythology.

Italy’s government has advised anyone in the areas covered by Saturday’s red alerts to avoid direct sunlight between 11:00 and 18:00, and to take particular care of the elderly or vulnerable.

In Rome, tour guide Felicity Hinton, 59, told the BBC the soaring temperatures combined with overcrowding has made it “nightmarish” to navigate the city.

“It’s always hot in Rome but this has just been consistently hot for a lot longer than normal,” she said.

“My tour guide friends and I are extremely stressed out. People have been fainting on tours and there are ambulances outside everywhere.”

Rome resident Elena, 62 told the BBC that she has noticed a “marked change” in summer temperatures since around 2003, and that they have been growing exponentially since.

Meanwhile, Greece has hit temperatures of 40C (104F) or more in recent days. The Acropolis in Athens – the country’s most popular tourist attraction – was closed during the hottest hours of Friday and Saturday to protect visitors.

In Spain, a forest fire on the island of La Palma has forced the evacuation of at least 500 people.

The heatwave is set to extend to the Balkans later next week – although several countries, like Serbia and Hungary, are already experiencing daily temperatures hovering around 35C (95F).

Periods of intense heat occur within natural weather patterns, but globally they are becoming more frequent, more intense and are lasting longer due to global warming.

Last month was the hottest June on record, according to the EU’s climate monitoring service Copernicus.

Extreme weather resulting from warming climate is “unfortunately becoming the new normal”, the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has warned.

World Opinions + Agencies

L’article Europe heatwave: No respite in sight for heat-stricken southern Europe est apparu en premier sur زوايا ميادين | Mayadin Columns.

La commissaire aux droits de l’Homme du Conseil de l’Europe Dunja Mijatovic s’est alarmée vendredi d’un “usage excessif de la force” envers les manifestants contre la réforme des retraites. Elle a appelé la France à respecter le droit de manifester. D’autres voix dénoncent des “violences policières”.

“Des incidents violents ont eu lieu, parmi lesquels certains ont visé les forces de l’ordre”, a déclaré la commissaire dans un communiqué. “Mais les actes de violence sporadiques de certains manifestants ou d’autres actes répréhensibles commis par d’autres personnes au cours d’une manifestation ne sauraient justifier l’usage excessif de la force par les agents de l’Etat. Ces actes ne suffisent pas non plus à priver les manifestants pacifiques de la jouissance du droit à la liberté de réunion”, a-t-elle poursuivi.

“Il appartient aux autorités de permettre l’exercice effectif de ces libertés, en protégeant les manifestants pacifiques et les journalistes couvrant ces manifestations contre les violences policières et contre les individus violents agissant dans ou en marge des cortèges”, a-t-elle insisté.

Violences dénoncées

Ces derniers jours, des syndicats d’avocats et de magistrats ainsi que des politiciens de gauche ont dénoncé des violences policières lors des manifestations contre la réforme des retraites.

L’ONG Reporters sans frontières (RSF) a appelé vendredi le ministre de l’Intérieur Gérald Darmanin à “mettre fin aux violences policières contre les journalistes”.

Propos de Gérald Darmanin contestés

Dunja Mijatovic s’est par ailleurs inquiétée de l’interpellation et du placement en garde à vue de certains manifestants et de personnes se trouvant aux abords des manifestations, s’interrogeant sur “la nécessité et la proportionnalité des mesures dont elles ont fait l’objet”.

Dunja Mijatovic, commissaire aux droits de l’homme du Conseil de l’Europe, en 2021 [Aleksandra Szmigiel – Reuters]

“Le défaut de déclaration d’une manifestation n’est pas suffisant en soi pour justifier une atteinte au droit à la liberté de réunion pacifique des manifestants, ni une sanction pénale infligée aux participants à une telle manifestation”, a-t-elle relevé, en référence aux propos de Gérald Darmanin.

Ouvertures d’enquêtes

Le ministre de l’Intérieur avait déclaré mardi que la participation à une “manifestation non déclarée” constitue un “délit” qui “mérite” une interpellation.

Gérald Darmanin a annoncé par ailleurs vendredi l’ouverture de 11 enquêtes judiciaires sur des violences policières présumées depuis une semaine dans le cadre de la mobilisation contre la réforme des retraites.

World Opinions – Agences

L’article Le Conseil de l’Europe s’inquiète de l’usage de la force contre les manifestants en France est apparu en premier sur زوايا ميادين | Mayadin Columns.

Banks are a special type of organisation. They take deposits and lend these funds to borrowers over long periods. It is pretty remarkable when you think about it. Banks make loans over many years, but you and I can withdraw the savings that banks use to fund the loans instantly.

For banks to operate this franchise model profitably, they essentially rely on two ingredients. First, they need to earn a profit by charging higher interest on long-term loans than they pay on short-term deposits. This model has come under severe strain in recent years. Owing to high inflation now and lower expected inflation in the next few years, many banks currently pay more for deposits and other funds than they earn on long-term loans and other assets. This makes the traditional banking model loss-making and raises questions about what the assets of some banks are worth if they had to be sold now.

Second, trust in the viability of a bank is vital. Banks are inherently unstable due to the mismatch in the duration of loans and deposits. They cannot liquidate their long-term assets quickly enough when many depositors withdraw at once. Even safe banks, with ample liquidity and capital, risk collapse when trust evaporates and depositors withdraw en masse.

It is important to remember that Credit Suisse is subject to more stringent regulations and oversight than other banks. Silicon Valley Bank was compliant with liquidity and capital regulations. In fact, SVB was well capitalised compared with many of its peers. However, when trust in the solvency of a bank goes, its franchise may crumble quickly, and depositors at other banks start worrying about the safety of their deposits.

This is by no means a repeat of the 2008 crisis. Regulations ensured banks, particularly the largest ones, have more capital and therefore greater ability to absorb losses than they did in 2008. Banks have also been stress-tested to withstand quite significant losses in the value of their loan portfolio.

In the US, Biden has assured voters that no taxpayer money would go to at-risk banks, but trust in the system relies on such support

Fortunately, regulators can address trust issues by providing large, potentially limitless, liquidity to solvent banks that have suffered from an erosion of trust. Over the weekend, the Federal Reserve and other US regulators did just that when they acted decisively in providing a large amount of liquidity to US banks.

However, I was less encouraged by the authorities’ insistence that this was not a bailout and that no taxpayers’ money was used. In situations where trust in banking comes under strain, bailouts are needed to prevent much worse and, if designed well, taxpayer money need not be at stake.

Recent events starkly contrast statements made by Mario Draghi about 10 years ago when he was head of the European Central Bank. During the euro crisis, which many feared might cause a breakup of the euro with catastrophic effects on the global financial system, Draghi declared that the central bank “is ready to do whatever it takes” and added “believe me, it will be enough”. His comments are widely credited with having ended the immediate financial crisis.

As this current crisis rattles on, a statement by global regulators that they are ready to do likewise to stem instability would be very welcome. While this will not be the last banking crisis and lessons must be learned, history also tells us that “whatever it takes” will restore trust and stability.

By Jens Hagendorff is professor of finance at King’s College London – Theguardian.com

L’article Analysis. Unlike 2008, Credit Suisse and SBV haven’t been saved by governments. But let’s not make ‘bailout’ a dirty word est apparu en premier sur زوايا ميادين | Mayadin Columns.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, on a tour of European capitals, tells leaders at a summit in Brussels that Europe’s freedom depends on Ukraine’s.

Russian forces have significantly stepped up attacks in eastern Ukraine and are trying to break through defences near Kreminna, says the Ukrainian governor of Luhansk.

The Russian embassy in London warns of “military and political consequences” after Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said “nothing is off the table”, including combat aircraft for Ukraine.

Russia’s Wagner mercenary group says it has stopped recruiting prisoners to fight in Ukraine.

He was earlier given a standing ovation at the European Parliament in Brussels.

Czech Republic to repair damaged Ukrainian armoured vehicles

The Ukrainian army’s armoured vehicles will be repaired in the Czech Republic, the Czech Defence Ministry said.

The ministry said that state-owned company VOP CZ signed a memorandum of understanding with Ukraine’s government arms manufacturer Ukroboronprom on the repairs on Monday.

“The memorandum … contains a specific plan and timetable for the repairs or securing of spare parts,” said Ales Vytecka, director of the Czech government’s AMOS agency for military cooperation, who co-signed the memorandum.

The Czech Republic has been one of the top weapons providers to Kyiv among NATO allies, supplying Ukraine with armoured personnel carriers, tanks or howitzers.

Russia may take legal action over Nord Stream investigation

Russia might take political or legal action in response to a report alleging that the US was involved in the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines last year, the TASS news agency reported, citing a foreign ministry official.

In a blog post, Pulitzer Prize-winning American investigative journalist Seymour Hersh cited an unidentified source as saying US navy divers had planted explosives on the pipelines in the Baltic Sea on the orders of President Joe Biden.

The White House dismissed the report as “utterly false and complete fiction”, and Norway, which is investigating the explosions, said the allegations were “nonsense”.

Mr Zelensky said Germany and France had the potential to be “game-changers” in the war. The sooner Ukraine received heavy, long-range weapons and modern planes, “the quicker this Russian aggression will end”, he explained.

Although President Macron has previously signalled some openness to providing fighter jets, Mr Scholz has not.

The French leader vowed Ukraine could count on his support, with France “determined to help Ukraine to victory and the re-establishment of its legitimate rights”. Chancellor Scholz added: “The position is unchanged: Russia must not win this war.”

Because of the 11-month long Russian invasion, Mr Zelensky rarely leaves his own country and a senior Ukrainian official said that the purpose of his trip was to obtain results.

He argues that fighter jets and long-range missiles are important in addition to the Leopard 2 tanks that Western nations have recently committed to supplying. While Mr Zelensky said he had discussed the issue of combat planes in Paris, he warned there was “very little time” to provide much-needed weaponry.

The Dutch prime minister said that many sensitive issues had to be discussed before a decision could be made on supplying fighter jets. “The pros and cons – you have to make absolutely sure that you are not getting into an Article Five direct confrontation between Nato and Russia,” Mr Rutte told the BBC.

Moscow has repeatably warned the West against weapons deliveries since the war began, frequently threatening to retaliate against what it calls “provocations”.

Asked by reporters in Moscow about the growing debate over sending warplanes to Ukraine, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia saw it as evidence of the growing involvement of the UK, France and Germany in the conflict.

“We regret this and state that such actions of these countries lead to the escalation of tension around this conflict, prolong it and make it more painful and torturous for Ukraine,” said Mr Peskov.

Chancellor Scholz agreed only recently to allow German Leopard tanks and has warned against getting involved in a “public bidding war” of weapons systems for Ukraine.

Mr Zelensky had earlier addressed a joint session of the UK Parliament in Westminster Hall, underlining his plea for fighter jets: “Freedom will win – we know Russia will lose.”

Downing Street said UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace was investigating what aircraft could potentially be offered, but emphasised this was “a long-term solution” and that training pilots could take years.

World Opinions – agencies

L’article Analysis. Zelenskyy lobbies EU leaders as battles rage est apparu en premier sur زوايا ميادين | Mayadin Columns.

n every conflict over the living world, something is being protected. And most of the time, it’s the wrong thing.

The world’s most destructive industries are fiercely protected by governments. The three sectors that appear to be most responsible for the collapse of ecosystems and erasure of wildlife are fossil fuels, fisheries and farming. In 2021, governments directly subsidised oil and gas production to the tune of $64bn (£53bn), and spent a further $531bn (£443bn) on keeping fossil fuel prices low. The latest figures for fisheries, from 2018, suggest that global subsidies for the sector amount to $35bn a year, over 80% of which go to large-scale industrial fishing. Most are paid to “enhance capacity”: in other words to help the industry, as marine ecosystems collapse, catch more fish.

Every year, governments spend $500bn on farm subsidies, the great majority of which pay no regard to environmental protection. Even the payments that claim to do so often inflict more harm than good. For example, many of the European Union’s pillar two “green” subsidies sustain livestock farming on land that would be better used for ecological restoration. Over half the European farm budget is spent on propping up animal farming, which is arguably the world’s most ecologically destructive industry.

Pasture-fed meat production destroys five times as much forest as palm oil does. It now threatens some of the richest habitats on Earth, among which are forests in Madagascar, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ecuador, Colombia, Brazil, Mexico, Australia and Myanmar. Meat production could swallow 3m square kilometres of the world’s most biodiverse places in 35 years. That’s almost the size of India. In Australia, 94% of the deforestation in the catchment area of the Great Barrier Reef – a major cause of coral loss – is associated with beef production. Yet most of these catastrophes are delivered with the help of public money.

The more destructive the business, the more likely it is to enjoy political protection. A study published this month claims that chicken factories being built in Herefordshire and Shropshire are likely to destroy far more jobs than they create, wrecking tourism through the river pollution, air pollution, smell and scenic blight they cause. But none of the planning applications for these factories has been obliged to provide an economic impact analysis. Planning officers, the paper found, are highly dismissive of the hospitality industry, treating it as “non-serious and trivial”. By comparison, the paper found, “attitudes to farming were very different; described as serious, ‘proper’ (male) work”. The “tough”, “masculine” industries driving Earth systems towards collapse are pampered and protected by governments, while less destructive sectors must fend for themselves.

While there is no shortage of public money for the destruction of life on Earth, budgets for its protection always fall short. According to the UN, $536bn a year will be needed to protect the living world – far less than the amount being paid to destroy it – yet almost all this funding is missing. Some has been promised, scarcely any has materialised. So much for public money for public goods.

The political protection of destructive industries is woven into the fabric of politics, not least because of the pollution paradox (“the more damaging the commercial enterprise, the more money it must spend on politics to ensure it’s not regulated out of existence. As a result, politics comes to be dominated by the most damaging commercial enterprises.”) Earth systems, by contrast, are treated as an afterthought, an ornament: nice to have, but dispensable when their protection conflicts with the necessity of extraction. In reality, the irreducible essential is a habitable planet.

In 2010, at a biodiversity summit in Nagoya, Japan, governments set themselves 20 goals, to be met by 2020. None has been achieved. As they prepare for the biodiversity Cop15 summit in Montreal next week, governments are investing not in the defence of the living world but in greenwash.

The headline objective is to protect 30% of the world’s land and oceans by 2030. But what governments mean by protection often bears little resemblance to what ecologists mean.

Take the UK, for example. On paper, it has one of the highest proportions of protected land in the rich world, at 28%. It could easily raise this proportion to 30% and claim to have fulfilled its obligations. But it is also one of the most nature-depleted countries on Earth. How can this be? Because most of our “protected” areas are nothing of the kind.

One analysis suggests that only 5% of our land meets the international definition of a protected area. Even these scraps are at risk, as scarcely anyone is left to enforce the law: the regulators have been stripped to the bone and beyond. At sea, most of our marine protected areas are nothing but lines on the map: trawlers still rip them apart.

All this is likely to become much worse. If the retained EU law bill goes ahead, the entire basis of legal protection in the UK could be torn down. Even by the standards of this government, the mindless vandalism involved is gobsmacking. To prove that Brexit means Brexit, 570 environmental laws must be deleted or replaced by the end of next year. There will be no public consultation, no scope for presenting evidence and, in all likelihood, no opportunity for parliamentary debate. It is logistically impossible to replace so much legislation in such a short period, so the most likely outcome is deletion. If so, it’s game over for rivers, soil, air quality, groundwater, wildlife and habitats in the UK, and game on for cheats and con artists. The whole country will, in effect, become a freeport.

Never underestimate the destructive instincts of the Conservative party, prepared to ruin everything for the sake of an idea. Never underestimate its appetite for chaos and dysfunction.

The protected industries driving us towards destruction will take everything if they are not checked. We face a brutal contest for control over land and sea: between those who seek to convert our life support systems into profit, and those who seek to defend, restore and, where possible, return them to the indigenous people dispossessed by capitalism’s fire front. These are never just technical or scientific issues. They cannot be resolved by management alone. They are deeply political. We can protect the living world or we can protect the companies destroying it. We cannot do both.

By George Monbiot is a Guardian columnist – theguardian.com

L’article Analysis. From the Amazon to Australia, why is your money funding Earth’s destruction est apparu en premier sur زوايا ميادين | Mayadin Columns.

Ukrainian soldiers have been welcomed into Kherson by jubilant residents, after Russia said it had fully withdrawn from the key southern city.

Video showed locals on the streets, flying Ukraine’s national flag and chanting as Kyiv’s troops arrived.

Some sang patriotic songs around a large camp fire well into the night.

Kherson was the only regional capital taken by Russia after February’s invasion. The retreat has been seen as one of its biggest setbacks of the war.

Moscow said 30,000 personnel had been taken out of the area – as well as around 5,000 pieces of military hardware, weaponry and other assets.

The White House hailed what it called an “extraordinary victory”, while Ukrainian President Zelensky called it an “historic day”.

But Ukraine’s foreign minister said the “war goes on”. Speaking in Cambodia on the sidelines of a summit of Asian countries, Dmytro Kuleba said: “We are winning battles on the ground. But the war continues.”

An evening update on Friday from the Ukrainian side said troops had pushed as far forwards as the western bank of the Dnipro river.

Images also emerged showing that the main river crossing – the Antonivsky Bridge – had partially collapsed. It remains unclear how the damage was caused.

The Russian troops who occupied Kherson are thought to be taking up new positions on the eastern side of the river.

A Kherson resident described his “overwhelming” emotions as people emerged singing and dancing onto the streets.

Alexei Sandakov revealed his full name to the BBC, having previously referred to himself only as “Jimmy”. He said Kherson was “free now. It’s different. Everyone is crying since this morning”.

He added that “everybody wanted to embrace” the arriving Ukrainian soldiers.

The city’s change of control followed a rapid Ukrainian counter-offensive in recent months, in which Kyiv said it had recaptured 41 settlements near Kherson.

In his evening address, President Zelensky said the people of Kherson “were waiting” and “never gave up on Ukraine”.

He added that residents had been working to remove “any traces of the occupiers’ stay” from the streets, including Russian symbols.

Meanwhile, a spokesman for Russian President Vladimir Putin denied the move represented a humiliating defeat.

For weeks, the Kremlin has regarded Kherson and its locality as its own territory, after running so-called “referendums” in four occupied provinces of east and south Ukraine.

These votes were widely discredited by the international community, and Ukraine kept up its efforts to take back the affected land.

Russia’s withdrawal from Kherson was announced on Wednesday by the country’s commander in Ukraine, who said it was no longer possible to supply the city.

Although there was little evidence of any Russian retreat on Thursday, Ukraine claimed advances of up to 7km on two axes as its troops pushed forwards.

Events continued to move quickly on Friday. Initial reports that the Russians had abandoned Kherson came from locals.

Crowds of flag-waving civilians were later filmed in Freedom Square, greeting Kyiv’s soldiers and chanting: “Glory to the Armed Forces of Ukraine!”

On Friday afternoon, Alexei Sandakov appeared to be still adapting to the new situation on the ground, commenting: “No-one is going to sleep tonight.”

The local television service in Kherson was also reconnected to Ukrainian broadcasts.

Shortly after 16:00 local time (14:00 GMT), a Ukrainian official said his troops were “almost fully in control” of Kherson, as well as the wider tranche of land to the west of the Dnipro river.

Troops were treading carefully amid fears of Russian traps, said Yuriy Sak, an adviser to the defence minister.

Mr Sak told the BBC that some enemy soldiers were believed to be lingering in the city, had cast off their uniforms and were trying to disguise themselves as civilians. He urged them to surrender.

He hailed Kherson’s recapture as a major win comparable to his side’s successful efforts earlier in the war to drive Russian troops away from other urban centres – namely Kyiv, Chernihiv and Kharkiv.

But he said he remained “cautious”, citing the possibility of Russian retaliations, and referring to a missile attack in Mykolaiv earlier in the day, which allegedly killed at least seven people.

Mr Sak vowed to retake further territory from Russia, including land that has been occupied by the neighbouring country since 2014.

In Russia, the exit from Kherson has been played down by officials and styled as a “redeployment” – despite criticism from pro-war commentators on social media.

Mr Putin was notably absent from Wednesday’s announcement by the military that Russian forces were leaving the city they had snatched, virtually unopposed, in the early stages of the war.

World Opinions – BBC News

L’article Ukraine. Celebrations as Kyiv takes back key city Kherson est apparu en premier sur زوايا ميادين | Mayadin Columns.