Un accord entre l’Ethiopie et le Somaliland pour un accès à la mer Rouge par le port de Berbera indigne la Somalie et la communauté internationale. Cette revendication de longue date d’Addis-Abeba fait craindre un nouveau conflit à côté de l’une des routes maritimes les plus fréquentées du monde.

Tout part d’une revendication de longue date de l’Ethiopie, celle de retrouver un accès à la mer Rouge. Pour ce faire, le pays vient de signer, début janvier, un accord avec le Somaliland, qui lui ouvre les portes de l’un de ses ports, celui de Berbera, dans le très stratégique golfe d’Aden. Or, le Somaliland (qui a décrété son indépendance en 1991) n’est pas reconnu comme un Etat par la communauté internationale.

Ce traité ne tarde pas à provoquer un tollé en Somalie d’abord, qui considère le Somaliland comme une région séparatiste. Des protestations éclatent dans les rues de Mogadiscio, la capitale somalienne, pour dénoncer une “ingérence” et une “agression” de l’Ethiopie. L’Union africaine, la Ligue arabe, l’Union européenne, les Etats-Unis, la Turquie ou encore la Chine appellent aussi au respect de la souveraineté de la Somalie.

Vecteur d’instabilité

En concluant un tel accord, le Premier ministre éthiopien Abiy Ahmed joue avec les nerfs de la communauté internationale, un an après la fin d’une guerre civile qui a fait jusqu’à 600’000 morts, selon les différentes estimations. D’autant que les relations entre la Somalie et l’Ethiopie ont été marquées par deux guerres déjà, dans les années 1960 et 1970. La Corne de l’Afrique compte parmi les régions du monde les plus fragiles et les plus exposées aux conflits, mais pour le chercheur indépendant, René Lefort, le déclenchement d’un nouveau conflit est peu probable.

Cette opération d’Abiy Ahmed est essentiellement une opération de politique intérieure, pour caresser l’opinion éthiopienne, en particulier nationaliste, dans le sens du poil

René Lefort, chercher indépendant et spécialiste de la région

“Cette opération d’Abiy Ahmed est essentiellement une opération de politique intérieure, pour caresser l’opinion éthiopienne, en particulier nationaliste, dans le sens du poil”, analyse le spécialiste de la région, pour qui de nombreuses conditions ne sont pas encore réunies pour rendre ce port opérationnel pour l’Ethiopie. Les termes financiers de l’accord doivent être négociés et les infrastructures pour atteindre Berbera sont inexistantes.

De plus, la situation dans la région est “tellement mouvante qu’il est possible que le contexte dans lequel cet accord a été conclu aujourd’hui ne soit absolument pas valable demain pour le mettre en œuvre”, avertit René Lefort. Plus qu’à un embrasement de la région, le chercheur s’attend à de nombreuses réactions et protestations. Mogadiscio appelle d’ailleurs à une manifestation qui pourrait réunir un million de personnes.

Un accès “vital” à la mer

La mer Rouge est une véritable autoroute marchande où transite le 12% du commerce mondial. Il n’est donc pas étonnant que l’Ethiopie, deuxième pays le plus peuplé du continent africain, souhaite retrouver un accès perdu en 1993, après l’indépendance de l’Erythrée.

Le Premier ministre éthiopien Abiy Ahmed lors de sa participation à un forum à Pékin, en Chine, le 16 octobre 2023. [Ken Ishii – afp]

Le Premier ministre éthiopien Abiy Ahmed l’a longuement justifié dans un discours télévisé fleuve cet automne. En 45 minutes, cartes du monde à l’appui, il a comparé son pays, géant de la Corne de l’Afrique, à une “prison géographique”, enclavée, contrairement à ses voisins, l’Erythrée, Djibouti, la Somalie ou le Kenya, qui ont tous pignon sur mer. Dans son allocution, Abiy Ahmed a affirmé qu’un accès à un port est “vital” pour l’économie de l’Ethiopie.

L’accord signé avec le Somaliland, qui lui garantit un accès au port de Berbera, présente ainsi un double avantage, explique le géographe François Guiziou, chargé de recherche au CNRS, basé au Havre. Le premier est d’ordre financier. “L’Ethiopie a un problème, c’est sa dépendance à Djibouti.”

Aujourd’hui, plus de 90% de ses flux commerciaux y transitent, selon The Economist, et les frais portuaires et douaniers s’élèvent à 1,5 milliard de dollars par an. D’après François Guiziou, avec le Somaliland, l’Ethiopie serait parvenue à négocier un accord avec des frais limités.

Le deuxième avantage est d’ordre stratégique. Le grand opérateur mondial Dubaï Ports World s’est installé à Berbera, transformant cette base autrefois très modeste en un port “intégré régionalement et un corridor naturel”, constate le géographe. En plus de services maritimes commerciaux, l’Ethiopie compte aussi installer dans ce port “une base navale permanente”.

Turbulences en mer Rouge

Depuis la mi-novembre, il ne se passe plus une semaine sans une nouvelle attaque des rebelles yéménites houthis contre des navires commerciaux en mer Rouge et dans le golfe d’Aden, des actions qui marquent leur soutien, disent-ils, à la bande de Gaza.

Les tensions entre l’Ethiopie et la Somalie ne sont pas directement liées à ce conflit, mais elles risquent de déstabiliser encore davantage une dynamique régionale compliquée avec des acteurs présents sur plusieurs terrains, selon David Rigoulet-Roze, chercheur à l’Institut français de relations internationales et stratégiques. Il mentionne les Emirats arabes unis implantés sur l’île de Socotra, dans le golfe d’Aden, et qui entretiennent des liens étroits avec l’Ethiopie. Ou encore l’Egypte qui a condamné l’accord en question, en raison du contentieux autour du méga-barrage éthiopien sur le Nil. “Il y a une articulation systémique qui suscite beaucoup d’inquiétudes”, conclut celui qui est aussi rédacteur en chef de la revue Orients Stratégiques.

Si bien que les pays de l’Est de l’Afrique tiendront une réunion extraordinaire ce vendredi, en Ouganda, avec au menu les tensions entre l’Ethiopie et la Somalie.

Par Julie Rausis – RTS info

L’article L’Ethiopie revendique un accès à la mer, au risque de déstabiliser la région est apparu en premier sur زوايا ميادين | Mayadin Columns.

Le sommet du G7 se déroule dans une ambiance particulièrement tendue au Japon. À Hiroshima, le spectre de la guerre en Ukraine plane et les dirigeants internationaux n’ont qu’un nom à la bouche : celui de Volodymyr Zelensky. L’heure est à la discussion diplomatique.

🇨🇳 Los líderes del #G7 anunciaron este sábado, en una declaración conjunta, que apoyarán a #Ucrania durante el tiempo que sea necesario, mientras calificaron la actuación de #Rusia como una #guerra ilegal de agresión.
Ingresa aquí para más información 👇https://t.co/v6don4S9Sn

— El Político (@Elpoliticonews) May 20, 2023

Le G7 se déroule actuellement à Hiroshima dans une ambiance tendue. Volodymyr Zelensky n’est pas sur la photo officielle avec les autres dirigeants, pourtant, au G7, on ne parle que de lui. Il est arrivé en grande pompe dans un appareil de la République française. Le président ukrainien a sollicité l’aide de l’Elysée pour son déplacement et ses rendez-vous au Japon.

#MacronLagaffe#G7 : les impairs de #Macron qui font tache au #Japon#G7Summit#G7HiroshimaSummit #MacronLaHontehttps://t.co/IeisTceNPj

— lilangell (@lilangell_) May 20, 2023

Il a d’abord rencontré ses alliés anglais, allemands et français en présence d’Emmanuel Macron. Ce dernier revendique le succès de cette visite surprise. “On en discutera mais je pense vraiment que votre présence peut changer la donne”, dit Emmanuel Macron au président ukrainien. Il est venu avec un objectif : élargir ses soutiens en dehors de l’Occident notamment avec l’Inde et le Brésil. Ce samedi 20 mai, il a eu un entretien avec le chef du gouvernement indien. Ce dernier avait jusqu’à présent refusé de condamner l’invasion russe.

Les injonctions du G7 ont provoqué la fureur de Pékin et de Moscou

Le représentant indien s’est engagé a minima : “Je vous l’assure, l’Inde et moi personnellement feront tout notre possible pour trouver une solution à la guerre”, déclare le Premier ministre de l’Inde. Autre pays en ligne de mire : la Chine. Les injonctions du G7 ont provoqué la fureur de Pékin et de Moscou. “Les décisions discutées et prises aujourd’hui au sommet du G7 à Hiroshima visent à contenir doublement la Russie et la Chine”, déclare le ministre russe des Affaires étrangères.

G7 Japan, more sanctions against Russia https://t.co/traRos1Ffr #Japan #G7 #Russia #Sanctions #TheDuran

— William Murphy (@futuredude) May 20, 2023

Un sommet des dirigeants des sept principales démocraties industrialisées (Canada, France, Etats-Unis, Allemagne, Italie, Japon, Royaume-Uni) se tient depuis vendredi dans la ville japonaise d’Hiroshima, en présence notamment du président américain Joe Biden.

La Chine a exprimé samedi son “vif mécontentement” après la publication par le G7 d’un communiqué lui adressant plusieurs reproches sur la mer de Chine méridionale, les droits de l’homme ou encore de supposées ingérences.

🏴‍☠️ Andy Davey: Everybody wants a bit of the #Zelensky stardust at #G7 Selfie time! #G7Hiroshima #G7Summit – political cartoon gallery in London https://t.co/S1KmDAp2XC pic.twitter.com/gCjgoUSjKl https://t.co/W0ISlLTZBC

— TORY SLEAZE UK 🇬🇧 (@torysleazeUK) May 20, 2023

Le communiqué du G7 appelle la Chine à “ne pas mener d’activités d’ingérence” dans ses pays membres et exprime ses “préoccupations” en matière de droits de l’homme “notamment au Tibet et au Xinjiang”.

Les signataires soulignent “l’importance de la paix et de la stabilité de part et d’autre du détroit de Taïwan” et se disent “gravement préoccupés” par la situation en mer de Chine méridionale, accusant indirectement la Chine de “coercition”..

World Opinions + Agences

L’article G7 au Japon : un sommet diplomatique sous haute tension et la Chine exprime son “vif mécontentement” face aux reproches est apparu en premier sur زوايا ميادين | Mayadin Columns.

Syria’s regional policy ought to be grounded in respecting the national and security interests of other Arab states, particularly the Gulf states. It is in Syria’s interest if its foreign policy is based on pursuing diplomacy, dialogue and common interests to strengthen bilateral and multilateral relationships with the countries of the region.  

Gulf states can play a critical role in helping to resolve Syria’s crisis. Several recent developments show that the Syrian people could also begin to experience more stability, security and economic development. 

For example, the Arab League recently readmitted Syria, which ended a more than decade-long suspension. According to the Saudi Foreign Ministry, the Arab League foreign ministers “consulted and exchanged views on the efforts made to reach a political solution to the Syrian crisis that ends its repercussions and preserves Syria’s unity, security, stability, and Arab identity; returns it to its Arab surroundings, to achieve the good of its brotherly people.”  

Other important developments include the phone call between UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al-Nahyan and Syrian President Bashar Assad on bilateral ties between the two nations. In addition, Saudi Arabia has made an important decision to resume the work of its diplomatic mission in Syria. 

Syria’s readmission to the Arab League, in addition to the latest diplomatic rapprochements between Damascus and the Gulf states, is most likely going to be just the start of a long process that will hopefully help to resolve the crisis in the country. This goal was also acknowledged by Arab League Secretary-General Ahmed Aboul Gheit. 

The Arab League, a 22-member organization founded in 1945, can play a critical role in discussing and resolving Syria’s underlying problems, as the organization is one of the most influential and powerful intergovernmental bodies in the world.  

It was established with the purpose of strengthening relations between Arab states, safeguarding their sovereignty and addressing general concerns about the affairs and interests of member nations.  

The Arab League’s primary role is to coordinate the political, cultural, economic and social programs of its members, as well as to mediate disputes between them. 

In addition, the Arab League is a key international player that has the capability to pave the way for tremendous social, economic and political changes. It can also push for specific measures and policies to be considered by other international organizations. For instance, the Arab League has successfully urged the UN to adopt resolutions that have had significant positive impacts on regional peace and security.  

However, it is critical to note that Syria’s crisis is multifaceted and complex. The economy is crippled after years of conflict, which has inflicted an unimaginable degree of devastation. Syria’s gross domestic product has more than halved and its currency has lost a significant portion of its value, leading the World Bank to rank it as a low-income country.  

Damascus needs to make it a priority to improve its economy and, more importantly, the living standards of its people. 

Prior to 2011, when Syria’s economic and political relationships with the Gulf states were amicable, its economy was improving thanks to these bilateral ties and tourism. 

But after the civil war began, sanctions on the regime changed the situation and left Syria with “a limited national budget to subsidize commodities such as bread and fuel … Displaced families and other vulnerable households are caught in the middle of a financial crisis caused by a rapidly depreciating currency and lack of available jobs. This means it is incredibly hard for Syrian families to provide for themselves, particularly amid growing food insecurity. Reports … describe families waiting for hours in bread lines, causing children to miss school or caregivers to miss work in order to find loaves of bread,” according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies. 

The second issue is related to enhancing the security of the country in a way that ensures safety and stability for the Syrian people, protecting them from the threats posed by militia and terror groups. 

The Gulf states are skilled in adopting modern counterterrorism strategies and in establishing institutions that promote an alternative and moderate ideology, while educating and raising awareness about extremist ideologies online. Examples include Saudi Arabia’s setting up of the Ideological Warfare Center, the Digital Extremism Observatory, the King Abdulaziz Center for National Dialogue and the Global Center for Combating Extremist Ideology. The Kingdom aims to challenge the messages of extremist groups through these initiatives. 

If Syria’s economic crisis is adequately addressed, security will likely be enhanced in the country as well.

Dr. Majid Rafizadeh

If Syria’s economic crisis is adequately addressed, security will likely be enhanced in the country as well, due to the fact that poverty and conflict-stricken states can often be ripe places for terror and militia groups to grow, gain power and inflict damage on the country and broader region.  

Finally, the largest refugee crisis in the world belongs to Syria. This has impacted neighboring countries economically and politically. By addressing the nation’s security and economic issues, the refugee crisis will gradually see signs of improvement as well.  

Syria’s crisis is deep and complex, but the region can play a key role in resolving it. The latest diplomatic initiatives between Damascus and the Gulf states have the potential to bring more stability, safety, security and economic development to the Syrian people. This requires that the Syrian government seize the opportunity by respecting the national and security interests of the Gulf states, while grounding its foreign policy in diplomacy, dialogue and shared interests.  

By  Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian-American political scientist. Twitter: @Dr_Rafizadeh 

L’article Analysis. Syria needs Gulf states for stability and security est apparu en premier sur زوايا ميادين | Mayadin Columns.

US President Joe Biden is set to hold talks with Russia’s Vladimir Putin for the second time this month, in a bid to de-escalate tensions over Ukraine.

The two leaders will speak by phone on Thursday.

They will discuss forthcoming security talks between the countries and the situation in Europe, a White House official said.

Russia, which recently built up forces on the border with Ukraine, denies planning to invade the country.

It says its troops are there for exercises, and that it is entitled to move its troops freely on its own soil.

Hours before the call, Mr Putin told Mr Biden in a holiday message he was “convinced” the pair could work together based on “mutual respect and consideration of each other’s national interests”.

His spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, said Moscow was “in the mood for a conversation”.

A day earlier, a US official told AFP news agency that Mr Biden would offer his Russian counterpart a “diplomatic path” but remained “gravely” concerned by the Russian troop build-up on the border.

The head of Ukraine’s national security council, Oleksiy Danilov, sought to downplay that on Thursday, saying: “As for the troops build-up near our borders reported by foreign media – we do not see that. There is a certain increase of [Russian] military and we closely monitor what’s happening at our borders.”

Less than a month ago, Ukraine’s defence minister told parliament – citing intelligence reports – that Russia had massed more than 94,000 troops near the border and could be gearing up for a large-scale military offensive at the end of January.

The US has consulted European leaders ahead of the call to co-ordinate a common response to the Ukraine issue, according to a White House statement.

While Ukraine is not a Nato member, it has close ties with the bloc.

Russia has said it wants legally binding guarantees that Nato will not move eastwards and that weapons will not be sent to Ukraine or any neighbouring countries.

Nato Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has been adamant that Ukraine’s membership of the alliance is a matter for Nato and Kyiv. “Any dialogue with Russia has of course to respect the core principles which European security has been based on,” he previously said.

Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda has described the current situation as probably “the most dangerous it’s been in 30 years”.

Russian officials are due to meet US counterparts in Geneva on 10 January. Asked earlier this week if he would meet Mr Putin on that date, Mr Biden replied “We’ll see”, but he is not expected to attend the talks in Geneva.

World Opinions – BBC

L’article Ukraine tensions: Biden and Putin phone call seeks ‘diplomatic path’ est apparu en premier sur زوايا ميادين | Mayadin Columns.

China has reacted angrily to the US government’s diplomatic boycott of next year’s Winter Olympics, as more countries said they would consider joining the protest over Beijing’s human rights record and New Zealand announced it would not send representatives to the Games.

Chinese officials dismissed Washington’s boycott as a “posturing and political manipulation” and tried to discredit the decision by claiming that US diplomats had not even been invited to Beijing in the first place.

The White House confirmed on Monday that it would not send any official or diplomatic representatives to the Winter Games and Paralympics in February, “given the PRC’s [People’s Republic of China’s] ongoing genocide and crimes against humanity in Xinjiang and other human rights abuses”.

“The athletes on Team USA have our full support,” said White House press secretary Jen Psaki. “We will be behind them 100% as we cheer them on from home. We will not be contributing to the fanfare of the Games.”

On Tuesday, New Zealand’s deputy prime minister, Grant Robertson, confirmed the country would not send diplomatic representatives at a ministerial level. Robertson cited Covid-19 as the primary reason “but we’ve made clear to China on numerous occasions our concerns about human rights issues”, he said.

The UK, Canada, and Australia have said they were considering their positions. Last week, Lithuania, which is facing trade and diplomatic hostilities from China over its growing relationship with Taiwan, announced neither its president nor ministers would attend the Games.

Chinese officials responded to the US announcement with outrage and also pre-emptive dismissal. Liu Xiaoming, the former Chinese ambassador to the UK, said the Olympics were “not a stage for political posturing and manipulation”.

“US politicians keep hyping a ‘diplomatic boycott’ without even being invited to the Games. This wishful thinking and pure grandstanding is aimed at political manipulation,” he said.

“It is a grave travesty of the spirit of the Olympic Charter, a blatant political provocation and a serious affront to the 1.4 billion Chinese people. It will only make the Chinese people and the world see clearly US politicians’ anti-China nature and hypocrisy.”

China’s embassy in Washington dismissed the boycott as “a pretentious act” and a “political manipulation”.

Earlier on Monday, China’s foreign ministry spokesperson, Zhao Lijian, accused Washington of “hyping a ‘diplomatic boycott’ without even being invited to the Games”, and threatened unspecified “resolute countermeasures” if a boycott was announced.

Law professor Margaret Lewis, a China specialist at Seton Hall law, said the boycott raised questions about how broadcasters like NBC will respond to China’s presentation of itself, particularly at the opening and closing ceremonies.

Lewis pointed at Psaki’s statement on the US not “contributing to the fanfare” of the Games.

“This is the key here – how the US will express that enthusiastic support for the athletes and not detract from their moment of Olympic glory, while also taking a strong principled stance on human rights,” she said. “It’s a doable task but it’s a hard line to walk.”

A US boycott had the support of senior legislators including Republican Mitt Romney and the Democrat Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi.

Boycott calls have intensified in recent months, as dozens of world governments mull how to respond to Beijing’s continued crackdown on ethnic minorities in China, its intervention on Hong Kong, and other human rights issues. Demands have further escalated over the case of Chinese tennis star Peng Shuai, who was not seen for almost three weeks after posting to social media an accusation of sexual assault against Chinese former vice-premier. She was later shown on state media to be in Beijing, but there remain widespread concerns about her wellbeing and level of freedom.

Rights groups welcomed the US announcement and called for other governments to follow suit.

Mark Clifford, the president of the UK-based advocacy group Committee for Freedom in Hong Kong, said global leaders had been “shown the way” by the US.

“Work with the US and Lithuania and take up the only morally justifiable course of action by implementing diplomatic boycotts of the 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing – or accept that you are endorsing some of the most horrific abuses inflicted upon a population by their own government in modern times,” he said.

The last time the US staged an Olympics boycott was the 1980 Moscow games, alongside 64 other countries and territories in response to the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan the previous year.

By Helen Davidson – theguardian.com

L’article China attacks US diplomatic boycott of Winter Games as ‘travesty’ of Olympic spirit est apparu en premier sur زوايا ميادين | Mayadin Columns.